Actual vs. Expected Dumbbell
Who is outperforming repeatable play?
Expected record, luck and historical gapsExplore how teams, conferences and the sport changed across decades—with coverage labels on every table.
| 2025 | 67 | 864 | 497 | 367 | 28.8 | 23.4 | 390.0 | 350.6 |
| 2024 | 67 | 866 | 494 | 372 | 28.8 | 23.9 | 393.7 | 354.7 |
| 2023 | 56 | 719 | 410 | 309 | 28.4 | 24.1 | 389.2 | 358.8 |
| 2014 | 52 | 670 | 389 | 281 | 30.4 | 25.4 | 413.5 | 378.8 |
| 2022 | 52 | 668 | 385 | 283 | 29.4 | 24.4 | 401.9 | 367.9 |
| 2015 | 52 | 667 | 385 | 282 | 29.8 | 25.2 | 412.7 | 381.3 |
| 2021 | 52 | 669 | 383 | 286 | 29.5 | 24.9 | 409.1 | 374.0 |
| 2018 | 52 | 669 | 382 | 287 | 30.9 | 26.1 | 419.6 | 385.1 |
| 2017 | 52 | 666 | 381 | 285 | 29.6 | 25.0 | 404.2 | 371.5 |
| 2016 | 52 | 669 | 380 | 289 | 30.3 | 26.0 | 421.9 | 392.6 |
| 2019 | 52 | 668 | 377 | 291 | 29.6 | 24.7 | 407.5 | 370.6 |
| 2013 | 50 | 640 | 372 | 268 | 30.9 | 25.4 | 420.4 | 384.0 |
| 2010 | 47 | 605 | 352 | 253 | 29.4 | 24.7 | 398.4 | 368.3 |
| 2007 | 47 | 603 | 352 | 251 | 29.4 | 24.5 | 390.2 | 364.0 |
| 2012 | 48 | 613 | 351 | 262 | 30.5 | 25.7 | 413.3 | 383.2 |
| 2008 | 47 | 603 | 351 | 252 | 28.0 | 23.2 | 370.8 | 345.6 |
| 2009 | 47 | 602 | 347 | 255 | 27.8 | 22.6 | 380.9 | 344.1 |
| 2011 | 46 | 593 | 345 | 248 | 28.8 | 24.4 | 392.2 | 365.2 |
| 2006 | 47 | 603 | 342 | 261 | 25.2 | 21.0 | 347.6 | 324.2 |
| 2020 | 53 | 517 | 267 | 250 | 29.6 | 28.5 | 407.1 | 400.3 |
| 2005 | 18 | 212 | 118 | 94 | 27.0 | 23.1 | 380.5 | 347.5 |
| 2026 | 67 | 141 | 109 | 32 | 37.7 | 17.1 | 449.8 | 289.2 |
| 2004 | 4 | 46 | 26 | 20 | 28.6 | 21.0 | 403.5 | 303.1 |
Who is outperforming repeatable play?
Expected record, luck and historical gapsHow deep is each conference?
Conference and era distributions