Is No. 23 Missouri About to Lose to the Better Offense in Lawrence?

Missouri is ranked. Missouri won last year's Border War. Missouri also has the defense I trust more over a full season.

I still think Kansas wins Friday night.

That sounds reckless until you separate the logo from the matchup. On StatTake's 2025 EPA board, Kansas ranked 31st nationally in offensive EPA per play. Missouri's offense ranked 39th. The gap was not huge, but Kansas already had the more efficient scoring structure before Isaiah Marshall took over at quarterback.

The scary part for Missouri is how comfortable Marshall looked in his first start. The Kansas game preview credits him with 246 passing yards, 49 rushing yards, two touchdowns and no turnovers in a 51-6 win over LIU. Kansas rushed for 277 yards, produced five rushing touchdowns and never needed Marshall to play hero ball.

Missouri's advantage is real—but attackable

Missouri's defense ranked 13th nationally in EPA allowed last season. Kansas was 121st. If this becomes a clean, methodical game, the Tigers deserve to be favored.

But rivalry games are rarely clean, and Kansas has the pieces to force Missouri out of that preferred script. Receiver Nik McMillan opened with 130 yards and now has seven straight 100-yard games. Marshall can punish man coverage with his legs. The Jayhawks also get the game in Lawrence, where they have won seven of the last eight meetings.

Missouri quarterback Austin Simmons was nearly perfect against Arkansas-Pine Bluff—17 of 19 for 252 yards in a 54-14 win. That is the best counterargument. The Tigers may finally have the passing complement their defense needed in 2025.

Here is the part the ranking hides: No. 23 is a résumé label, not a matchup guarantee. Missouri still has five games against current top-10 opponents, which makes Friday feel like a game it cannot lose. That urgency does not block McMillan, tackle Marshall in space or quiet a rivalry crowd.

Still, an FCS rout does not prove Missouri can chase points on the road. Kansas jumped ahead 21-6 in Columbia last year before collapsing in a 42-31 loss. This version has a quarterback who can create after the first read and a defense that just held LIU to 146 total yards and 35 rushing yards. No, LIU is not Missouri. The shape of the performance still matters.

The concern with my pick is Kansas' defense. Missouri running back Jamal Roberts gashed the Jayhawks for 143 yards last season, including the late 63-yard touchdown that ended the argument. If Kansas loses first down again, Missouri can keep Marshall watching from the sideline.

The conventional take says Missouri's balance will travel. Mine is simpler: Kansas has the best offensive matchup in a one-night rivalry game, and the better offense gets the last answer. Jayhawks, narrowly.