Turnover-neutral performance
← ALL METRICSSTATTAKE PROPRIETARY METRIC • V1.0-provisional
No-Luck Rating
A turnover-neutral view of team quality built from the components most likely to persist.
0–100NATURAL SCALEPENDING
DESIGNED VISUAL METHOD
VERIFIED DATA ONLYActual vs. Expected Dumbbell
PRIMARY VIEW • ACTUAL VS EXPECTED
Compare turnover-neutral quality with the public result.
- Actual margin
- Expected margin
- Non-repeatable events
FORMAT STACKExpected-margin dumbbell • Turnover-neutral ranking • Residual plot
Show a likely range and label luck as model-estimated.PUBLIC METHODOLOGY
PROPRIETARY MODELWhat it considers
Stable efficiency
Field-position context
Special-teams and close-game variance
Reframes team quality around the performance signals most likely to carry forward. Exact weighting, calibration and model code remain private.
2026 NATIONAL BOARD
PROVISIONALCurrent leaderboard
| RK | TEAM | NO-LUCK | STATUS | SAMPLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Miami | 93.7 | PROVISIONAL | 3 |
| 2 |  Houston | 87.1 | PROVISIONAL | 3 |
| 3 |  USC | 76.8 | PROVISIONAL | 3 |
| 4 |  Texas Tech | 71.5 | PROVISIONAL | 3 |
| 5 |  Pittsburgh | 68.0 | PROVISIONAL | 3 |
| 6 |  North Dakota State | 64.2 | PROVISIONAL | 3 |
| 7 |  Delaware | 55.2 | PROVISIONAL | 3 |
| 8 |  Coastal Carolina | 54.0 | PROVISIONAL | 3 |
| 9 |  Syracuse | 52.9 | PROVISIONAL | 3 |
| 10 |  Wake Forest | 48.6 | PROVISIONAL | 3 |
| 11 |  Jacksonville State | 48.0 | PROVISIONAL | 3 |
| 12 |  Oregon | 38.3 | PROVISIONAL | 3 |
| 13 |  Sacramento State | 33.3 | PROVISIONAL | 3 |
| 14 |  San José State | 31.3 | PROVISIONAL | 3 |
| 15 |  Memphis | 29.4 | PROVISIONAL | 3 |
| 16 |  New Mexico State | 27.9 | PROVISIONAL | 3 |
| 17 |  Hawai'i | 26.7 | PROVISIONAL | 3 |
| 18 |  Eastern Michigan | 21.3 | PROVISIONAL | 3 |
| 19 |  UNLV | 18.9 | PROVISIONAL | 3 |