Lead-extension opportunities
← ALL METRICSSTATTAKE PROPRIETARY METRIC • V1.0-provisional
Kill Shot Rate
How often a team turns an advantage or sudden-change opportunity into a decisive extension of the lead.
0–100%NATURAL SCALEPENDING
DESIGNED VISUAL METHOD
VERIFIED DATA ONLYWin-Probability Timeline
PRIMARY VIEW • WIN PROBABILITY
Mark every chance to extend control and whether it was converted.
- Kill-shot chances
- Conversion
- Control swing
FORMAT STACKCumulative-margin timeline • Scoring-run timeline • Game-story combination
Distinguish observed opportunities from estimated win impact.PUBLIC METHODOLOGY
PROPRIETARY MODELWhat it considers
Sudden-change possessions
Conversion after gaining control
Qualified game state
Tracks how often a team turns a meaningful advantage into a more decisive one. Exact weighting, calibration and model code remain private.
2026 NATIONAL BOARD
PROVISIONALCurrent leaderboard
| RK | TEAM | KILL SHOT | STATUS | SAMPLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Miami | 94.7% | PROVISIONAL | 3 |
| 2 |  Houston | 90.5% | PROVISIONAL | 3 |
| 3 |  USC | 77.3% | PROVISIONAL | 3 |
| 4 |  North Dakota State | 70.1% | PROVISIONAL | 3 |
| 5 |  Texas Tech | 64.5% | PROVISIONAL | 3 |
| 6 |  Pittsburgh | 58.6% | PROVISIONAL | 3 |
| 7 |  Coastal Carolina | 57.6% | PROVISIONAL | 3 |
| 8 |  Syracuse | 55.9% | PROVISIONAL | 3 |
| 9 |  Wake Forest | 54.6% | PROVISIONAL | 3 |
| 10 |  Delaware | 40.3% | PROVISIONAL | 3 |
| 11 |  Jacksonville State | 37.2% | PROVISIONAL | 3 |
| 12 |  Oregon | 35.1% | PROVISIONAL | 3 |
| 13 |  San José State | 34.9% | PROVISIONAL | 3 |
| 14 |  Sacramento State | 33.4% | PROVISIONAL | 3 |
| 15 |  Hawai'i | 33.3% | PROVISIONAL | 3 |
| 16 |  New Mexico State | 32.1% | PROVISIONAL | 3 |
| 17 |  Memphis | 30.1% | PROVISIONAL | 3 |
| 18 |  Eastern Michigan | 17.3% | PROVISIONAL | 3 |
| 19 |  UNLV | 16.3% | PROVISIONAL | 3 |