Game-level performance
← ALL METRICSSTATTAKE PROPRIETARY METRIC • V1.0-provisional
Expected Record
The record an average team would be expected to earn from the same game-level performance.
Decimal W–LNATURAL SCALEPENDING
DESIGNED VISUAL METHOD
VERIFIED DATA ONLYActual vs. Expected Dumbbell
PRIMARY VIEW • ACTUAL VS EXPECTED
Show the exact distance between results and expected results.
- Actual wins
- Expected wins
- Likely range
FORMAT STACKActual-versus-expected dumbbell • Expected-win distribution • Scenario fan chart
Always display the model interval beside the point estimate.PUBLIC METHODOLOGY
PROPRIETARY MODELWhat it considers
Scoring opportunities
Possession quality
Opponent strength
Translates the quality of each performance into an expected win contribution across the season. Exact weighting, calibration and model code remain private.
2026 NATIONAL BOARD
PROVISIONALCurrent leaderboard
| RK | TEAM | EXPECTED W–L | STATUS | SAMPLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Miami | 2.5 WINS | PROVISIONAL | 3 |
| 2 |  Houston | 2.3 WINS | PROVISIONAL | 3 |
| 3 |  USC | 2.1 WINS | PROVISIONAL | 3 |
| 4 |  Pittsburgh | 1.9 WINS | PROVISIONAL | 3 |
| 5 |  North Dakota State | 1.9 WINS | PROVISIONAL | 3 |
| 6 |  Texas Tech | 1.9 WINS | PROVISIONAL | 3 |
| 7 |  Syracuse | 1.6 WINS | PROVISIONAL | 3 |
| 8 |  Delaware | 1.6 WINS | PROVISIONAL | 3 |
| 9 |  Coastal Carolina | 1.5 WINS | PROVISIONAL | 3 |
| 10 |  Wake Forest | 1.5 WINS | PROVISIONAL | 3 |
| 11 |  Jacksonville State | 1.4 WINS | PROVISIONAL | 3 |
| 12 |  Oregon | 1.1 WINS | PROVISIONAL | 3 |
| 13 |  San José State | 1.1 WINS | PROVISIONAL | 3 |
| 14 |  Sacramento State | 1.1 WINS | PROVISIONAL | 3 |
| 15 |  Memphis | 1.0 WINS | PROVISIONAL | 3 |
| 16 |  New Mexico State | 1.0 WINS | PROVISIONAL | 3 |
| 17 |  Hawai'i | 1.0 WINS | PROVISIONAL | 3 |
| 18 |  Eastern Michigan | 0.9 WINS | PROVISIONAL | 3 |
| 19 |  UNLV | 0.8 WINS | PROVISIONAL | 3 |